The Sacramento Kings' postseason status was in doubt for much of March, but with the Phoenix Suns losing the plot, they were able to secure their place in the NBA play-in tournament, booking themselves a matchup against the injury-ravaged Dallas Mavericks in the 9/10 matchup. While many believe that the winner of this matchup will end up losing to the loser of the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies' 7/8 play-in matchup, the Kings are still dreaming of shocking the world with a playoff berth.
The Kings' problem over the past month or so has been their inconsistency; they can function as a well-oiled machine for one game and completely devolve into janky basketball on some nights. But over the past few games, the Kings have turned a corner, scoring huge wins over the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers while pushing a scorching-hot Los Angeles Clippers to the brink.
Considering how the Kings went out of their way to remain semi-competitive by acquiring Zach LaVine in the De'Aaron Fox trade, missing the playoffs will be a disaster. But they must take care of business one step at a time, and their journey to securing a 1-8 matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs will begin with their upcoming clash against the Mavericks.
With that said, here are a few bold predictions for how the Kings will fare in their play-in tournament matchup against the Mavericks.
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Zach LaVine explodes for 40+ points
One major factor behind the Kings' improved play as of late has been their decision to increase Zach LaVine's involvement in the offense. LaVine, in turn, has responded with some absolutely huge games to secure the Kings' play-in tournament ticket. He scored a combined 80 points in their two crucial victories over the Cavs and Pistons, and when he gets going, he's one of the most difficult scorers to stop in the association.
This decision to tilt the offense more in LaVine's hands is the right one for the Kings; even though DeMar DeRozan has averaged the most shots for Sacramento since the LaVine trade, LaVine has been more efficient, especially when he has a consistent three-ball in his arsenal. And for the Kings to advance past the Mavericks, they will have to go all-in on offense considering how much they lack weapons on the defensive end.
To that end, expect LaVine to explode for 40 or more points, leading the way for the Kings as they put a merciful end on the Mavericks' season from hell.
Domantas Sabonis dominates the Anthony Davis matchup again
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Domantas Sabonis getting the upper hand over Anthony Davis has become something of a meme over the years. But Sabonis, indeed, has gotten the upper hand over Davis more often than not. Sabonis won the first 10 matchups of his career against Davis, although the last four haven't been kind to the Kings star amid the Los Angeles Lakers' dominance over their division rival.
Sabonis' physicality has always given Davis fits, and he always seems to stuff the stat sheet whenever he faces the Mavericks star. Winning the big-man battle will be imperative for the Kings; the Mavericks' strength lies in their frontcourt power, with Davis being partnered alongside Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, and if Sabonis powers the Kings on the interior, expect Sacramento to win this play-in game quite handily.
Kings win by at least 20 points
The Mavericks have been beset by calamity after calamity after trading Luka Doncic away. And it will be the Kings that finally puts them to bed after a disastrous 2024-25 campaign.
The Kings swept the season series against the Mavs, 3-0, with two of those games coming after Dallas' Doncic disaster. Dallas will be outgunned by Sacramento on the perimeter, and their offense, which ranks 23rd since the Doncic trade, won't have much in the way of getting things done on the road against a highly-motivated Sacramento team.
The Mavericks' net rating since the first of February has been one of a lottery-bound team; they have been outscored by 7.4 points per 100 possessions, with Dallas being on the receiving end of 14 double-digit defeats during that span. Of those double-digit defeats, eight have come by 20 points or more, which highlights how much blowout potential this game has.
Last season, the Kings went on to crush the Warriors in the 9/10 play-in game, 118-94. That team had more weapons than this current Mavericks squad, and anything less than a 20-point blowout on Wednesday would be a disappointment.
